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Ciena’s $14 Billion AI Ambition: Real Operating Leverage or the Market’s Next Impossible Forecast?

Ciena Corporation has just handed investors one of the boldest long-term forecasts in the networking industry. At its September 2026 Investor Forum, the optical-networking specialist laid out fiscal 2029 targets calling for approximately 30% compound annual revenue growth from fiscal 2026 through 2029, roughly 50% adjusted gross margins, adjusted operating margins of 32% to 35%, and a free-cash-flow margin approaching 20%. Put those numbers together and management is effectively describing a radically different Ciena from the company investors knew only a few years ago. The opportunity is enormous. Artificial intelligence is creating extraordinary demand for computing power, but those computers are useful only if enormous amounts of data can move between them quickly enough. That makes high-speed optical networking an increasingly important piece of AI infrastructure. Ciena wants to be one of the companies supplying those digital highways. The problem for investors is that expectations...